I Don't Try To Be Clever At

True Intuitive Expertise Is Learned From Prolonged Experience With Good Feedback On Mistakes.

One Thing We Have Lost, That We Had In The Past, Is A Sense Of Progress, That Things Are Getting Better. There Is A Sense Of Volatility, But Not Of Progress.

Political Columnists And Sports Pundits Are Rewarded For Being Overconfident.

Policy Makers, Like Most People, Normally Feel That They Already Know All The Psychology And All The Sociology They Are Likely To Need For Their Decisions. I Don't Think They Are Right, But That's The Way It Is.

People Who Face A Difficult Question Often Answer An Easier One Instead, Without Realizing It.