I'm Not Trying To Do Anything Too

We Want To Get 80%-85% Of Predictions Right, Not 100%. Or Else We Calibrated Our Estimates In The Wrong Way.

The Public Is Even More Pessimistic About The Economy Than Even The Most Bearish Economists Are.

Any One Game In Baseball Doesn't Tell You That Much, Just As Any One Poll Doesn't Tell You That Much.

You Can Build A Statistical Model And That's All Well And Good, But If You're Dealing With A New Type Of Financial Instrument, For Example, Or A New Type Of Situation - Then The Choices You're Making Are Pretty Arbitrary In A Lot Of Respects.

Every Day, Three Times Per Second, We Produce The Equivalent Of The Amount Of Data That The Library Of Congress Has In It's Entire Print Collection, Right? But Most Of It Is Like Cat Videos On Youtube Or Thirteen-year-olds Exchanging Text Messages About The Next 'twilight' Movie.