I Think People Feel Like There Are

Expert Estimates Of Probability Are Often Off By Factors Of Hundreds Or Thousands. [...] I Used To Be Annoyed When The Margin Of Error Was High In A Forecasting Model That I Might Put Together. Now I View It As Perhaps The Single Most Important Piece Of Information That A Forecaster Provides. When We Publish A Forecast On Fivethirtyeight, I Go To Great Lengths To Document The Uncertainty Attached To It, Even If The Uncertainty Is Sufficiently Large That The Forecast Won't Make For Punchy Headlines.

People Attach Too Much Importance To Intangibles Like Heart, Desire And Clutch Hitting.

If I Had A Spreadsheet On My Computer, It Looked Like I Was Busy.

I Think Punditry Serves No Purpose.

Well The Way We Perceive Accuracy And What Accuracy Is Statistically Are Really Two Different Things.