I Think Punditry Serves No Purpose.

The Signal Is The Truth. The Noise Is What Distracts Us From The Truth.

I Have To Make Sure That I Make Good Choices And That If I Put My Name On It, It's A High-quality Endeavor And That I Have Time To Be A Human Being.

Caesar Recognized The Omens, But He Didn't Believe They Applied To Him.

To My Friends, I’m Kind Of Sexually Gay But Ethnically Straight.

Expert Estimates Of Probability Are Often Off By Factors Of Hundreds Or Thousands. [...] I Used To Be Annoyed When The Margin Of Error Was High In A Forecasting Model That I Might Put Together. Now I View It As Perhaps The Single Most Important Piece Of Information That A Forecaster Provides. When We Publish A Forecast On Fivethirtyeight, I Go To Great Lengths To Document The Uncertainty Attached To It, Even If The Uncertainty Is Sufficiently Large That The Forecast Won't Make For Punchy Headlines.