If I Had A Spreadsheet On My

People Don't Have A Good Intuitive Sense Of How To Weigh New Information In Light Of What They Already Know. They Tend To Overrate It.

We Speak For Them. We Imbue Them With Meaning.

Almost Everyone's Instinct Is To Be Overconfident And Read Way Too Much Into A Hot Or Cold Streak.

The Key To Making A Good Forecast Is Not In Limiting Yourself To Quantitative Information.

When Human Judgment And Big Data Intersect There Are Some Funny Things That Happen