If There Is Time To Reflect, Slowing

When People Think Of The Outcomes Of Their Decisions, They Think Much More Short Term Than That. They Think In Terms Of Gains And Losses.

We Have No Reason To Expect The Quality Of Intuition To Improve With The Importance Of The Problem. Perhaps The Contrary: High-stake Problems Are Likely To Involve Powerful Emotions And Strong Impulses To Action.

True Intuitive Expertise Is Learned From Prolonged Experience With Good Feedback On Mistakes.

Most Of The Moments Of Our Life - And I Calculated, You Know, The Psychological Present Is Said To Be About Three Seconds Long; That Means That, You Know, In A Life There Are About 600 Million Of Them; In A Month, There Are About 600,000 - Most Of Them Don't Leave A Trace.

We Were Required To Predict A Soldier's Performance In Officer Training And In Combat, But We Did So By Evaluating His Behavior Over One Hour In An Artificial Situation. This Was A Perfect Instance Of A General Rule That I Call Wysiati, "what You See Is All There Is." We Had Made Up A Story From The Little We Knew But Had No Way To Allow For What We Did Not Know About The Individual's Future, Which Was Almost Everything That Would Actually Matter. When You Know As Little As We Did, You Should Not Make Extreme Predictions Like "he Will Be A Star."