In Short, If We Adhere To The

People Are Drastically Overconfident About Their Judgments Of Others.

The Mistakes We Make When We Try To Imagine Our Personal Futures Are Also Lawful, Regular, And Systematic. They, Too, Have A Pattern That Tells Us About The Powers And Limits Of Foresight In Much The Same Way That Optical Illusions Tell Us About The Powers And Limits Of Eyesight.

Part Of Us Believes The New Car Is Better Because It Lasts Longer. But, In Fact, That's The Worst Thing About The New Car. It Will Stay Around To Disappoint You, Whereas A Trip To Europe Is Over. It Evaporates. It Has The Good Sense To Go Away, And You Are Left With Nothing But A Wonderful Memory.

The Price We Pay For Our Irresponsible Explanatory Urge Is That We Often Spoil Our Most Pleasant Experiences By Making Good Sense Of Them.

In Short, We Derive Support For Our Preferred Conclusions By Listening To The Words That We Put In The Mouths Of People Who Have Already Been Preselected For Their Willingness To Say What We Want To Hear.