Midterm Elections Can Be Dreadfully Boring, Unfortunately.

We Need To Stop, And Admit It: We Have A Prediction Problem. We Love To Predict Things—and We Aren’t Very Good At It.

We Look At All The Polls, Not Just The Gallup Poll. So, It's Kind Of Like If You Have, You Know, Four Out Of Five Doctors Agree That Reducing Cholesterol Reduces Your Risk Of A Heart Attack, Gallup Is Like The Fifth Doctor.

Almost Everyone's Instinct Is To Be Overconfident And Read Way Too Much Into A Hot Or Cold Streak.

I Was Looking For Something Like Baseball, Where There's A Lot Of Data And The Competition Was Pretty Low. That's When I Discovered Politics.

The Protestant Reformation Had A Lot To Do With The Printing Press, Where Martin Luther's Theses Were Reproduced About 250,000 Times. And So You Had Widespread Dissemination Of Ideas That Hadn't Circulated In The Mainstream Before.