There Is No Evidence That The Business

People Dont Realize That We Cannot Forecast The Future. What We Can Do Is Have Probabilities Of What Causes What, But Thats As Far As We Go. And Ive Had A Very Successful Career As A Forecaster, Starting In 1948 Forward. The Number Of Mistakes I Have Made Are Just Awesome. There Is No Number Large Enough To Account For That.

History Demonstrates That Participants In Financial Markets Are Susceptible To Waves Of Optimism. Excessive Optimism Shows The Seeds Of Its Own Reversal In The Form Of Imbalances That Tend To Grow Over Time.

Significantly Opening Up Immigration To Skilled Workers Solves Two Problems. The Companies Could Hire The Educated Workers They Need. And Those Workers Would Compete With High-income People, Driving More Income Equality.

The Use Of A Growing Array Of Derivatives And The Related Application Of More-sophisticated Approaches To Measuring And Managing Risk Are Key Factors Underpinning The Greater Resilience Of Our Largest Financial Institutions... Derivatives Have Permitted The Unbundling Of Financial Risks.

But How Do We Know When Irrational Exuberance Has Unduly Escalated Asset Values, Which Then Become Subject To Unexpected And Prolonged Contractions As They Have In Japan Over The Past Decade?