You Don't Want To Influence The Same

Well The Way We Perceive Accuracy And What Accuracy Is Statistically Are Really Two Different Things.

Expert Estimates Of Probability Are Often Off By Factors Of Hundreds Or Thousands. [...] I Used To Be Annoyed When The Margin Of Error Was High In A Forecasting Model That I Might Put Together. Now I View It As Perhaps The Single Most Important Piece Of Information That A Forecaster Provides. When We Publish A Forecast On Fivethirtyeight, I Go To Great Lengths To Document The Uncertainty Attached To It, Even If The Uncertainty Is Sufficiently Large That The Forecast Won't Make For Punchy Headlines.

I Think Punditry Serves No Purpose.

We Want To Get 80%-85% Of Predictions Right, Not 100%. Or Else We Calibrated Our Estimates In The Wrong Way.

I Think There's Space In The Market For A Half-dozen Kind Of Polling Analysts.