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I Know It's Cheaper To Fund An Op-ed Columnist Than A Team Of Reporters, But I Think It Confuses The Mission Of What These Great Journalistic Brands Are About.

When Human Judgment And Big Data Intersect There Are Some Funny Things That Happen

Every Four Years In The Presidential Election, Some New Precedent Is Broken.

Expert Estimates Of Probability Are Often Off By Factors Of Hundreds Or Thousands. [...] I Used To Be Annoyed When The Margin Of Error Was High In A Forecasting Model That I Might Put Together. Now I View It As Perhaps The Single Most Important Piece Of Information That A Forecaster Provides. When We Publish A Forecast On Fivethirtyeight, I Go To Great Lengths To Document The Uncertainty Attached To It, Even If The Uncertainty Is Sufficiently Large That The Forecast Won't Make For Punchy Headlines.

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