Mind Is A Machine For Jumping To

The Concept Of Loss Aversion Is Certainly The Most Significant Contribution Of Psychology To Behavioral Economics.

Most Successful Pundits Are Selected For Being Opinionated, Because It's Interesting, And The Penalties For Incorrect Predictions Are Negligible. You Can Make Predictions, And A Year Later People Won't Remember Them.

We Don't See Very Far In The Future, We Are Very Focused On One Idea At A Time, One Problem At A Time, And All These Are Incompatible With Rationality As Economic Theory Assumes It.

Lucky Risk Takers Use Hindsight To Reinforce Their Feeling That Their Gut Is Very Wise. Hindsight Also Reinforces Others' Trust In That Individual's Gut.

We Have No Reason To Expect The Quality Of Intuition To Improve With The Importance Of The Problem. Perhaps The Contrary: High-stake Problems Are Likely To Involve Powerful Emotions And Strong Impulses To Action.