New Ideas Are Sometimes Found In The

You Get Steely Nerves Playing Poker.

Distinguishing The Signal From The Noise Requires Both Scientific Knowledge And Self-knowledge.

I've Just Always Been A Bit Of A Dork.

The Thing That People Associate With Expertise, Authoritativeness, Kind Of With A Capital 'a,' Don't Correlate Very Well With Who's Actually Good At Making Predictions.

People Don't Have A Good Intuitive Sense Of How To Weigh New Information In Light Of What They Already Know. They Tend To Overrate It.