New Ideas Are Sometimes Found In The

Distinguishing The Signal From The Noise Requires Both Scientific Knowledge And Self-knowledge: The Serenity To Accept The Things We Cannot Predict, The Courage To Predict The Things We Can, And The Wisdom To Know The Difference.

We Want To Get 80%-85% Of Predictions Right, Not 100%. Or Else We Calibrated Our Estimates In The Wrong Way.

To My Friends, I’m Kind Of Sexually Gay But Ethnically Straight.

The Signal Is The Truth. The Noise Is What Distracts Us From The Truth.

I Guess I Don't Like The People In Politics Very Much, To Be Blunt.